International credit rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Turkmenistan’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at “BB-” with a stable outlook. The agency also affirmed the country’s short-term ratings at “B” in both currencies and the country ceiling at “BB-”, according to Fitch’s rating action commentary.
Fitch assesses Turkmenistan’s ratings are supported by an exceptionally strong sovereign balance sheet, the highest net foreign asset-to-GDP ratio and the lowest government debt level among countries rated in the “BB” and “B” categories. The agency also cited the country’s position as holding the world’s fourth-largest natural gas reserves as an additional key strength.
According to Fitch’s forecast, Turkmenistan’s net foreign assets are expected to reach 59.3% of GDP by 2027, significantly exceeding the median level for countries rated in the “BB” and “B” categories. The agency expects the current account surplus to average 1.2% of GDP in 2026–2027.
Fitch projectsthat Turkmenistan’s international reserves will cover an average of 46 months of current external payments in 2026–2027, the highest level among countries rated by the agency. Analysts estimate that external debt servicing will account for 3.9% of current external receipts in 2027, while government debt is expected to decline to 2.7% of GDP by the end of the year, remaining well below the median level for “BB” rated countries.
Natural gas remains Turkmenistan’s primary export commodity, accounting for about two-thirds of exports in 2025, to remain broadly stable in 2026–2027. China is expected to remain the largest market for Turkmen gas due to steady demand under long-term contracts. Fitch also noted that construction of the fourth phase of development at the Galkynysh gas field began in April 2026. The project is expected to increase annual gas production capacity by 10 billion cubic meters.
Fitch Ratings is one of the world’s leading credit rating agencies, evaluating the creditworthiness of countries, companies, and financial instruments. Alongside S&P and Moody’s, Fitch is part of the “Big Three” global credit rating agencies, and its assessments are widely referenced across international financial markets.
