The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) forecasts Central Asian economies to grow 4.9 percent in 2023 and 5.4 percent in 2024, the strongest growth among the regions the bank works, according to the bank’s latest Regional Economic Prospects report, published on Thursday.
The average economic growth of the region, comprising of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, will be around the twice the overall forecast for the 36 countries in which the EBRD works. The bank expects output in all regions it works, which stretch across three continents, to grow by 2.1 percent in 2023 and 3.3 percent in 2024.
The biggest GDP growth is expected in Tajikistan (8 percent in 2023 and 2024), Kyrgyzstan (7 percent in 2023, 7.2 percent in 2024), Mongolia (7 percent in 2023 and 7.5 percent in 2024), Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan (6.5 percent in 2023, 7 percent 2024 each).
"The slight upward revision compared to September reflects the rise caused by high oil and gas prices in commodity-exporting countries and an increased inflow of labor, capital and remittances, as well as an increased intermediary trade," the EBRD said.
Output growth in Central Asia is expected to pick up to 5.4 percent in 2024, on planned infrastructure investments, high commodity prices and relocation of Russian businesses.